The Dangote Petroleum Refinery received double its usual crude oil allocation from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited in March, a development that has lifted prospects for improved fuel availability — though industry operators warn that consumers may see little relief at the pump without government intervention on pricing.
Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and President of the Dangote Group, disclosed in a Bloomberg report on Tuesday that the refinery took delivery of 10 crude oil cargoes from NNPC last month, compared to an average of about five monthly since late 2024.
Six of the cargoes were paid for in naira and four in dollars, under the existing crude supply arrangement between the two entities.
“Nigeria doubled crude supply to Dangote Refinery in March as Africa’s top oil producer moved to shore up fuel availability after the Iran war disrupted Middle East shipments.
“Last month, they gave us six cargoes with payments in naira and four cargoes with payments in dollars,” Dangote stated.
The surge in allocation comes as Nigeria moves to strengthen domestic refining capacity following disruptions to global oil supply chains triggered by the US-Israel attack on Iran, which has unsettled crude flows from the Middle East.
Industry operators have described the increase as a step in the right direction but conditioned any meaningful price moderation on the government reducing the cost of crude supplied to local refineries.
Despite the improved supply, Dangote acknowledged that the refinery continues to operate below optimal capacity.
The plant requires approximately 19 cargoes monthly to run at full capacity — nearly double what it received in March.
“The supply has improved, but it is not yet at the level we need. We still have to import crude from the United States and other African countries to meet our requirements,” he said.
A separate report last week had indicated that NNPC allocated seven cargoes to the refinery for May loading — an increase from the five it had been receiving in previous months. Refinery officials, however, said they were unaware of that claim.
Dangote also raised concerns about the conduct of international oil companies operating in Nigeria, accusing them of preferring to sell crude to international traders rather than supply the refinery directly — forcing the plant to buy back Nigerian crude at a premium.
“Some of the international oil companies would rather sell to traders. So, we end up buying our own crude at a premium. The higher we pay, the higher the cost of petroleum products will be, because we have to pass on the cost,” he said.
Beyond domestic supply, the refinery exported approximately 17 cargoes of petroleum products to other African nations in March alone, cementing its role as a key continental supplier amid ongoing global energy uncertainty.
The plant is also scaling up production of polypropylene — a critical industrial material used in plastics and automotive manufacturing — which Dangote described as being in acute global shortage due to Middle East tensions.
The crude-for-naira deal between NNPC and the Dangote refinery, signed in October 2024, was designed to boost local refining, conserve foreign exchange, and stabilise domestic fuel prices. Its implementation, however, has been hampered by inconsistent crude supply and competition from international traders.
Industry watchers cautioned that the March increase alone may not translate to lower pump prices. Jeremiah Olatide, Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, welcomed the development but warned that structural pricing constraints remain firmly in place.
“The 10 crude cargoes supply recorded in March is a good development because it indicates more crude supply and, by extension, more fuel availability. But without Federal Government intervention through crude subsidy to the Dangote refinery and other local refineries, Nigerians will continue to experience availability but unaffordability, as petrol and diesel prices are poised to hit N1,500 per litre and N2,000 per litre at the pump,” he said.
Olatide added that even the naira-denominated cargoes offer no guarantee of price relief, as local pricing remains pegged to international benchmarks.
“The six cargoes paid for in naira are still priced using international benchmarks, so Nigerians should not expect any drop in pump prices. What the Federal Government should do now is introduce crude subsidy,” he said.
He further sounded the alarm over the diesel market, noting that depot prices had already breached the N2,000-per-litre mark.
“As I speak, diesel prices at the depot have just crossed N2,000 per litre, so there is a crisis ahead,” Olatide warned.
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