Kano is experiencing a dramatic population surge that is reshaping the ancient commercial city and placing it among the world’s largest urban centres, according to figures cited from the World Population Review 2026.
The report estimates Kano’s population at about 17.5 million, placing it ninth among the world’s most populous cities and ahead of major urban centres such as Lagos, New York and Istanbul. It projects that the population could exceed 20 million by 2030 if the current growth trajectory continues.
The development has renewed debate over how Kano can turn its growing population, dominated by young people, into an economic advantage while preventing mounting pressure on housing, transport, healthcare, education, water supply, sanitation and the environment.
Kano’s population growth has been attributed to a combination of natural increase, migration, commercial activities and the city’s strategic position as a major trading centre in northern Nigeria.
For centuries, the city has served as a commercial bridge connecting different parts of Nigeria and neighbouring countries. Its markets, manufacturing activities, agricultural economy and expanding service sector continue to attract people seeking employment and business opportunities.
However, analysts warn that rapid urbanisation without corresponding investment in infrastructure and productive sectors could expose Kano to serious economic, social and environmental risks.
The World Population Review figures indicate that Kano’s population has risen from 3,005,222 in 1991 to an estimated 17,510,247 in 2026, representing more than a five-fold increase in 35 years.
The report estimates that Kano added more than 536,000 people in the past year alone, with an annual growth rate of about 3.16 per cent.
Figures from Nigeria’s National Population Commission also show a sustained increase. The 1991 census recorded 5,810,470 residents in Kano State, while the 2006 census put the figure at 9,401,288.
Subsequent estimates by the National Bureau of Statistics and the NPC placed the population at about 13.4 million in 2016 and 15.46 million in 2022, while an NPC estimate for 2026 put the figure at 16,253,549.
The varying figures have, however, fuelled debate among stakeholders over the actual population of Kano, particularly comparisons with Lagos.
Beyond the statistics, experts say the city’s rapid growth reflects broader demographic changes taking place across Africa, where high fertility rates, rural-to-urban migration and insecurity are accelerating urbanisation.
Kano has also become a destination for people displaced by insecurity in parts of the North-East and North-West. Families fleeing insurgency and banditry in states including Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Zamfara, Katsina and Sokoto have sought refuge in the city because of its relative stability, commercial opportunities and cultural connections.
The concentration of universities, hospitals, government institutions and commercial activities has further strengthened Kano’s attraction.
But the population explosion is already putting pressure on the city’s infrastructure.
Road congestion, inadequate public transportation, rising housing demand, overstretched healthcare facilities and overcrowded schools are among the challenges confronting residents.
Water supply and sanitation systems are also under pressure, while the expansion of informal settlements has made urban planning increasingly difficult.
Employment remains another major concern. With young people making up a significant proportion of Kano’s population, experts say the city must create productive opportunities quickly enough to absorb its growing workforce.
Failure to do so, they warn, could worsen unemployment, poverty, crime and social tension.
The environmental consequences are equally significant. Urban expansion is contributing to the loss of farmland and vegetation, while inadequate waste management, air pollution and flooding pose growing risks.
A Kano-based historian and independent researcher, Dr Ibrahim Ado Kurawa, said the population boom could become either an opportunity or a major challenge depending on how government responds.
Kurawa warned that failure to provide education and productive economic opportunities could increase crime, social unrest and pressure on infrastructure.
“But if the government is careful and inclusive, and if productivity is prioritised, the opportunities are immense,” he said.
He argued that Kano must invest heavily in agriculture, manufacturing and energy if it is to convert its population into an economic asset.
“The danger is that Nigeria invests more in services than in production. Manufacturing is low, agriculture is neglected, and energy is insufficient. Without electricity to power industries, Kano will struggle,” Kurawa said.
He added that Kano needed to learn from major global cities by improving sanitation, public transportation, education and environmental management.
“We cannot rely on tricycles and informal systems. We need innovative public transport. Major cities across the world have clean environments, efficient transport, and strong education systems. Kano must learn from them,” he said.
Population can be an advantage
Dr Abdussalam Muhammad Kani, an economist and lecturer at Sa’adatu Rimi College of Education, Kano, said the city’s population should not automatically be viewed as a problem.
Kani, who is also Executive Director of the Fiscal Discipline and Development Advocacy Centre, said the real challenge was ensuring that the growing population became productive.
“Too much population can only be a problem if the government fails to make the population productive,” he said.
He drew comparisons with China, arguing that a large population could become a source of economic strength when supported by appropriate policies, skills development, industrialisation and job creation.
For Kano, he said, the priority should be to develop systems capable of turning its large youthful population into a productive workforce rather than treating population growth solely as a burden.
Kano’s commercial advantage
Kano’s emergence as a major urban centre is rooted in centuries of commerce.
The city was historically a major stop on trans-Saharan trade routes, attracting merchants dealing in leather, textiles, grains, livestock, salt and other commodities.
By the 19th century, Kano had developed into a major centre for textile production and earned a reputation as the “Manchester of West Africa.”
Its commercial influence remains visible in markets such as Kurmi, Kantin Kwari, Dawanau and Sabon Gari, which support thousands of traders, artisans, transporters and other workers.
Dawanau is one of the region’s largest grain markets, while Kantin Kwari remains a major textile trading centre.
Agriculture also remains central to the city’s economic ecosystem, with farmers producing rice, maize, millet, sorghum, tomatoes, onions, groundnuts and other crops.
Kano also has a significant industrial base covering textiles, leather, food processing, plastics, pharmaceuticals and other manufacturing activities.
However, unreliable electricity, inadequate infrastructure, high transportation costs and limited access to finance continue to constrain businesses.
Experts therefore argue that the city’s future depends on whether government can match its demographic growth with investments in infrastructure and productive economic activities.
Improved electricity, mass transit, affordable housing, modern agricultural systems, industrial development, digital skills and access to finance for small businesses are among the interventions needed to sustain Kano’s growth.
The World Population Review’s broader analysis of global urbanisation shows that Africa is expected to experience some of the fastest urban growth in the coming decades.
Nigeria is projected to be one of the major contributors to this expansion, with its urban population expected to rise sharply by 2050.
For Kano, the rapid transformation presents a defining choice: allow population growth to overwhelm existing systems or use the city’s large and youthful population as the foundation for a more productive, better planned and economically competitive metropolis.
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