Nigeria’s foreign reserves have risen to $54.9bn, up from $32bn in April 2024, as Fitch Ratings revised the country’s economic outlook from stable to positive, citing improved external buffers, falling inflation and sustained economic reforms.
The Federal Ministry of Finance disclosed this in a statement on Saturday, following Fitch’s October 9 decision to affirm Nigeria’s long-term issuer default ratings at ‘B’ while upgrading its outlook to positive.
A positive outlook signals the possibility of a future rating upgrade if the country sustains its current economic trajectory.
The ministry attributed the improved assessment to increased flexibility in the naira, stronger foreign exchange reserves, rising export earnings and remittances, and improved formalisation of foreign exchange transactions.
According to the statement, Nigeria’s gross foreign reserves stood at $54.9bn as of September 25, 2026, compared with $32bn in mid-April 2024.
Fitch also projected a current account surplus of 6.4 per cent of gross domestic product in 2026, indicating stronger external balances.
The ratings agency expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from four per cent in 2025, with growth projected to remain above four per cent in 2027 and 2028, driven largely by non-oil activities.
It also forecast average inflation at 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level.
The ministry said Fitch recognised improved crude oil production, which has met Nigeria’s OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, as well as increased domestic refining, which is helping to reduce refined petroleum imports and foreign exchange demand.
On public finances, Fitch expects tax reforms to increase non-oil revenue, while projecting government debt to average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, below the 56 per cent median for countries with a ‘B’ rating.
The agency also acknowledged the strength of Nigeria’s domestic debt market and the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise.
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said the positive outlook reflected the impact of reforms introduced under President Bola Tinubu, including the removal of fuel subsidy, exchange rate unification and changes to the tax system.
He said the government remained committed to reforms aimed at lowering borrowing costs, attracting private investment and creating jobs.
However, the ministry acknowledged that Nigeria still faces significant economic challenges, including inflation above the levels of comparable countries, weak government revenue relative to the size of the economy, and high debt-servicing costs.
The government said it would continue to focus on revenue mobilisation, fiscal discipline, transparent debt management, economic diversification and measures to improve living standards.
The latest decision follows positive rating actions by other international agencies in 2026. S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised its outlook on the country to positive in August.
Nigeria also returned to Frontier Market status under FTSE Russell on September 21, 2026.
The finance ministry said the government’s longer-term ambition was to move Nigeria towards investment-grade credit status, although that would depend on sustained reforms and further improvements in the country’s economic fundamentals.
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