Afrinvest: Nigeria needs 40% GDP growth, N500/$ rate to hit $1trn economy

Nigeria must grow its nominal gross domestic product (GDP) by at least 40 per cent in both 2025 and 2026, or see the naira strengthen to N500/$, if it is to achieve President Bola Tinubu’s $1 trillion economy target by 2030, according to investment firm Afrinvest West Africa.

Tinubu has introduced sweeping reforms—including fuel subsidy removal, a floating exchange rate, and tax system overhauls—aimed at boosting growth. His administration projects real GDP growth of 7 per cent by 2027 to drive the trillion-dollar goal.

Afrinvest, however, said the numbers demand sharper momentum.
“For a 7.0% real growth from 2027 to push the economy to $1.0tn by 2030, nominal GDP must have surpassed $800bn by end-2026—implying nominal growth of no less than 40% in each of 2025 and 2026,” the report stated.

“Alternatively, if real GDP growth caps at 5.0% as projected by the World Bank and IMF, the naira would need to appreciate to above N500/$ from 2027 for the President’s call to materialise.”

Nigeria’s economy has recently expanded in size following rebasing, with nominal GDP up 30% to N372.48 trillion. Yet in dollar terms, it shrank to $251bn—the lowest in a decade—due to steep naira devaluation. While the rebasing eased debt-to-GDP ratios, growth momentum remains modest.

NBS data show Q1 2025 growth at 3.13% year-on-year, below the pace required to meet government targets. The IMF and World Bank forecast growth of 3.4–3.6% in 2025, rising only slightly to 3.8% by 2027.

Afrinvest analysts warned that without stronger fundamentals, the trillion-dollar ambition may fall short.
“Notwithstanding ongoing reforms, the president’s call for 7% GDP growth by 2027 and a quadrupling of the economy by 2030 lacks key drivers,” the report noted.

The firm recommended a multi-pronged push to accelerate growth: lifting oil output to 2 million barrels per day, enforcing cost-reflective electricity tariffs with targeted subsidies, maintaining FX market stability, fully implementing tax reforms, and addressing food insecurity through safety nets and improved security in farming regions.

Although the naira recently firmed to 1,495.25/$—its strongest level since February—the likelihood of it reaching N500/$ within two years remains uncertain.