The federal government has reported a significant rise in tax revenues for the first half of 2025, collecting a total of N14.27 trillion between January and June.
This marks a 43 percent increase compared to the N9.98 trillion realised during the same period in 2024.
The government noted that this figure far exceeds its projected baseline growth target of 16.4 percent, underscoring improved tax administration, strengthened compliance, and successful diversification initiatives by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS).
According to a report from the Presidency, non-oil tax revenues stood at N10.64 trillion as of June 2025, rising by 44.2 percent from N7.37 trillion in the first half of 2024. Meanwhile, oil-related tax revenues rose to N3.63 trillion, up from N2.60 trillion recorded in the corresponding period last year, representing a 39.4 percent increase.
The report described the revenue performance as a clear indicator of upward momentum in collection and a strong signal that the country is on track to achieve its 2025 fiscal targets.
Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, attributed the success to ongoing structural reforms and welcomed the newly released rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for 2024, as well as the 3.13 percent GDP growth recorded in the first quarter of 2025.
Edun praised the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for its technical rigor in conducting the rebasing exercise, which he described as vital for informed policy planning and economic analysis.
The updated data revealed that Nigeria’s economy expanded in nominal terms from N205.09 trillion in 2019 to N372.82 trillion in 2024, giving a clearer picture of the economy’s size and structure.
However, despite the improved numbers, Nigeria’s GDP, when converted using the prevailing exchange rate of N1,529.53 per dollar, stood at $243.5 billion, placing the country behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria in Africa’s economic rankings.
Analysts expressed concern that the federal government’s ambition to grow the economy to $1 trillion by 2030 may now be an uphill battle, given current conditions.
While Edun remained optimistic about the trajectory, calling the rebased GDP a reflection of Nigeria’s evolving economic landscape—particularly with the growing dominance of services such as ICT, finance, entertainment, and professional services—economic experts cautioned that more deliberate efforts were required to translate these statistical gains into real economic progress.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, noted that while the rebasing has provided better insight into the economy, the results were not as expansive as many had expected.
He highlighted changes in the sectoral contributions to GDP, pointing out that agriculture now contributes about 25.58 percent, up from 22.12 percent, while the industrial sector has declined to 21.08 percent, and services have risen to 53.09 percent.
He also observed a dramatic increase in the contribution of the water transport sector and noted that the informal economy now accounts for 42.5 percent of GDP, up from 41.4 percent.
Yusuf added that the updated figures will impact the way key economic indicators such as tax-to-GDP, debt-to-GDP, and deficit-to-GDP ratios are evaluated.
While the rebasing is helpful for comparative analysis and global benchmarking, he stressed that the target of achieving a $1 trillion economy remains distant, even though the country may reach $400 billion by the end of 2025 if growth continues at the current pace.
Other economic stakeholders echoed similar sentiments.
Dr. Chijioke Ekechukwu, Group Managing Director of Bristol Investments, argued that Nigeria must accelerate industrialisation and boost agricultural productivity to reach its growth ambitions.
He called for large-scale investment in the solid minerals, gas, and agriculture sectors, including the development of greenhouse farming in all states to overcome insecurity challenges that have crippled traditional farming.
Mr. Idakolo Gbolade, CEO of SD&D Capital Management, pointed out that while GDP expansion through rebasing is welcome, it does not directly impact the standard of living for ordinary Nigerians.
He warned that an increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio to align with the new GDP size could have adverse effects on citizens already grappling with inflation, unemployment, and reduced purchasing power.
Similarly, President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Gabriel Idahosa, while recognising the statistical importance of the GDP rebasing, stressed that the government must not lose sight of the economic hardship facing millions of Nigerians.
He said the figures must not become an excuse for complacency, especially when food inflation, high energy costs, and exchange rate depreciation continue to squeeze households and businesses.
Idahosa urged the federal government to stabilise the naira and follow the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) advice by recalibrating its budget, tightening monetary policy, and deepening structural reforms to ensure inclusive development.
Although the federal government remains committed to its Renewed Hope Agenda, and aims to achieve 7 percent annual GDP growth, the prevailing sentiment among analysts is that while statistical growth is encouraging, the true measure of economic progress will be how it translates into job creation, higher incomes, and improved living standards for Nigerians across all sectors.
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