Global goods trade hits $13.7trn as AI, EV demand drives growth

Global trade in goods rose to about $13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, representing a 12.5 per cent increase from the corresponding period in 2025, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The agency attributed the growth partly to higher prices and strong trading activity in East Asia, where developing economies recorded double-digit quarterly expansion.

UNCTAD said rising demand for products linked to artificial intelligence and electric vehicles was also supporting global trade, particularly in critical minerals, semiconductors and batteries.

Critical minerals recorded the strongest growth among key products, rising by 38 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. Semiconductor trade increased by 25 per cent, while batteries grew by 15 per cent.

Information and communications technology goods rose by 14 per cent, while trade in electric cars increased by 11 per cent.

Services trade also expanded during the period, although at a slower pace, recording 10.5 per cent year-on-year growth in the first half of the year.

According to UNCTAD, East Asia was the main driver of quarter-on-quarter growth, with developing economies and South-South trade recording double-digit expansion over the past 12 months when the region was included.

However, excluding East Asia, developing economies recorded an overall contraction in the first quarter, largely due to weaker trade flows involving the Middle East and South Asia.

Intra-regional trade increased across most regions, although South America continued to record relatively weak trade within the region.

Over the 12-month period, import growth was strongest in Africa, East Asia and Europe.

LDCs face export barriers

UNCTAD also raised concerns about the growing impact of non-tariff measures on least developed countries (LDCs).

The agency said LDCs lose about 10 per cent of their exports to G20 markets because they struggle to meet increasingly complex non-tariff requirements.

While tariff disputes dominated global trade discussions following disruptions in 2025, UNCTAD said non-tariff measures had become a major source of trade costs, particularly for developing economies.

The agency’s April 2026 assessment also showed that global trade expanded strongly in 2025, driven largely by manufacturing, which grew by 11 per cent.

Agricultural trade also increased, supported by stronger activity in cereals, animal products, coffee, tea and spices.

FDI rises globally, Nigeria records decline

Global foreign direct investment increased by 6 per cent to $1.6 trillion in 2025, according to UNCTAD, with developed economies accounting for a significant portion of the increase.

Nigeria, however, recorded a sharp decline in FDI in the first quarter of 2026.

The country attracted $135.08 million in FDI, down from $357.80 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.

UNCTAD data showed that Nigeria recorded total capital inflows of about $10.37 billion during the quarter, with portfolio investments and other short-term financial instruments accounting for much of the inflow.

The latest global trade figures will keep attention focused on whether demand for AI and electric vehicle supply-chain inputs can sustain the expansion through the rest of 2026.

The performance of FDI in Africa, particularly Nigeria, will also remain under scrutiny as policymakers seek to convert short-term capital inflows into longer-term productive investment.