Mobile subscriptions rise to 175m as Nigeria’s telecom sector recovers

Nigeria’s telecommunications sector is firmly back on a growth path, with active mobile subscriptions rising to 175.08 million in October 2025, according to new figures from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC).

This represents a 3.4 percent increase from 169.3 million recorded in January.

The upturn has pushed the country’s teledensity to 80.87 percent—its highest level since early 2024 and a 2.8-percentage-point rise so far this year.

The recovery follows a difficult 2024, when widespread SIM deactivations driven by strict enforcement of the NIN-SIM policy and high inflation caused active lines to fall below 160 million, dragging teledensity into the low-70 percent range for the first time in nearly a decade.

MTN Nigeria led the rebound, closing October with 91.08 million subscribers and a 52.02 percent market share, accounting for more than half of this year’s net additions.

Airtel Nigeria followed with 59.04 million subscribers and 33.72 percent share, while Globacom held 12.47 percent. New entrant T2 maintained 1.79 percent.

Subscriber numbers increased in all 10 months from January to October, with monthly gains ranging between 480,000 and two million lines.

October was the strongest month, adding 1.54 million new connections.

The sustained growth is being driven by a rapid shift in network technology.

Fourth-generation (4G) services now serve 51.77 percent of mobile users, overtaking 2G’s 38.40 percent share for the first time.

Meanwhile, 5G usage—though still limited—rose from about one percent at the start of 2025 to 3.49 percent in October, representing roughly 6.1 million users concentrated in major cities.

Broadband penetration also improved, with active broadband subscriptions rising to 108.2 million.

This pushed penetration to 49.89 percent from 45.3 percent in January, bringing Nigeria close to the long-anticipated 50-percent milestone, even though the target of 70 percent set under the National Broadband Plan for 2025 remains far off.

Analysts attribute the rebound to falling handset prices, competitive data promotions, expanded rural coverage supported by the Universal Service Provision Fund, and a modest easing of inflation in the second half of the year.

The Central Bank’s decision to maintain interest rates since July has also helped stabilise the naira, supporting consumer spending on airtime and data.

Despite these gains, challenges persist. Fixed-line services remain largely absent, with wired broadband subscriptions still below 74,000.

Rural communities continue to rely heavily on legacy 2G networks, while average revenue per user has fallen in dollar terms due to currency depreciation and intense price competition.

Industry analysts expect growth to extend into 2026, though at a slower pace.

The NCC is preparing for new spectrum auctions early next year, while MTN and Airtel have announced significant investment plans to deepen 4G coverage and accelerate 5G rollout.

For now, the rise to 175 million active mobile lines—serving a population of about 216 million—marks a significant recovery for Nigeria’s telecom industry.