Nigeria could earn an additional $3.9 billion by maximising global demand for high-value non-oil products, according to new data from the International Trade Centre’s (ITC) Export Potential Map.
The assessment places Nigeria’s total export potential at $7.6 billion, driven largely by opportunities in cocoa, cashew nuts, urea, and a fast-emerging contender — coffee.
Cocoa remains Nigeria’s strongest export performer and the product with the widest gap between current and potential exports. ITC estimates the country’s unrealised cocoa export opportunity at $749 million, representing 19 percent of its untapped global potential. Cashew nuts (in shell) and urea also feature prominently, reinforcing Nigeria’s comparative advantage in agricultural and agro-industrial commodities.
One of the most significant findings of the report is the growing export potential of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee (HS 090111). ITC identifies coffee as one of Nigeria’s best pathways for export diversification alongside copper cathodes and frozen fish. With global demand rising, Nigeria’s closest export link is Japan, while the United States represents the largest market opportunity.
Japan currently imports $1.4 billion worth of this type of coffee, Germany imports $4 billion, and the U.S. $5.8 billion — all at zero-percent tariffs for Nigerian exports. The Netherlands, Italy and Belgium also import substantial volumes with zero tariffs, while Korea applies a minimal 2 percent tariff.
Given this demand landscape, ITC highlights coffee as a strategic commodity capable of significantly expanding Nigeria’s non-oil export base. It also notes that Nigeria finds dried, shelled Vigna mungo/radiata beans among its easiest markets to penetrate, while jewellery made from precious metals has some of the highest international demand potential.
Commenting on the findings, Dr. Victor Iyama, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Cocoa Association of Nigeria (CAN), said coffee remains a powerful cash crop capable of boosting Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings.
With cocoa, cashew, urea and coffee showing substantial growth prospects, the report suggests Nigeria could unlock billions in additional export revenue by aligning investment, logistics and trade policy with global market needs.
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