Nigeria must grow 28% annually to hit $1trn GDP by 2030 — AIESEC

Nigeria must achieve annual economic growth of about 28 per cent to reach its $1trn gross domestic product target by 2030, AIESEC Alumni Nigeria has said, warning that the country’s current trajectory is insufficient to meet the ambition.

The organisation said achieving the target would require sustained investment, improved productivity, stronger infrastructure, expanded exports and consistent economic policies.

The warning was delivered at the 42nd Omolayole Management Lecture organised by AIESEC Alumni Nigeria and hosted by the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association in Lagos.

Presenting a paper titled “One Trillion Dollar Economy: What It Will Take Nigeria to Achieve the Goal?”, the President and Chairman of the Governing Council of the Chartered Institute of Directors Nigeria, Adetunji Oyebanji, said Nigeria’s nominal GDP stood at about $290.79bn in 2025.

He said the country would need a compound annual growth rate of approximately 28.02 per cent between 2026 and 2030 to reach the $1tn mark.

Oyebanji warned that projections based on historical trends suggested Nigeria could fall further behind if it continued with its current economic performance.

He said two projection methods put Nigeria’s GDP at $223bn and $173bn, respectively, by 2030, highlighting the need for a fundamental shift in the economy.

“The important conclusion is sobering. If we simply continue along historical trends, the economy does not naturally arrive at $1tn by 2030. In other words, business as usual is not sufficient,” he said.

Oyebanji illustrated the scale of growth required, saying Nigeria’s economy would need to expand from about $290bn in 2025 to $372bn in 2026, $477bn in 2027, $610bn in 2028 and $781bn in 2029 before reaching $1trn in 2030.

He said the country could not afford inconsistent performance, stressing that sustained expansion was necessary to meet the target.

“Bridging the gap requires more than cyclical recovery. Nigeria must accelerate investment, strengthen infrastructure, maintain fiscal and monetary discipline, expand exports, improve industrial competitiveness, deepen the digital economy, mobilise domestic revenue, and maintain policy consistency,” he said.

The CIoD president also cautioned that growth in dollar-denominated GDP depended not only on increased economic output but also on exchange-rate stability.

He explained that currency depreciation could erode gains from domestic production, making macroeconomic stability essential to achieving the target.

Oyebanji outlined three phases of economic transformation Nigeria must pursue: stabilisation, growth and shared prosperity.

He acknowledged that recent reforms, including foreign exchange market unification, petrol subsidy removal, fiscal consolidation and expenditure controls, were intended to strengthen economic stability.

However, he warned that stabilisation alone would not deliver the transformation required to achieve the $1tn ambition.

“The lesson is simple: stability is the foundation, not the destination,” he said.

Also speaking at the event, the President of NECA, Richard Ayibiowu, said Nigeria needed stronger growth, higher investment, improved productivity, better infrastructure, innovation and stronger institutions to realise the target.

He described the private sector as central to translating investment into production, employment, higher incomes and improved living standards.

Ayibiowu said government reforms in exchange rates, fuel subsidies and taxation must produce measurable improvements in investment, output and job creation.

“However, reforms must ultimately translate into increased production, investment, and job creation,” he said.

AIESEC President, Marcel Mba, said the organisation would continue to sustain the Omolayole Management Lecture as a platform for generating ideas to influence national development.

Oyebanji urged the government to implement reforms consistently and strengthen transparency and accountability. He also called on businesses to make long-term investments and build globally competitive enterprises, while encouraging Nigerians to embrace innovation, entrepreneurship and productivity.

He described the $1tn target as more than an economic ambition, saying it required a collective national effort.