Nigeria’s exports to other African countries rose to N10.72trn in the first half of 2026, representing a 122.26 per cent increase from the N4.82tn recorded in the same period of 2025.
However, the sharp increase in naira terms has been accompanied by a deeper concentration in crude oil, refined petroleum products and other commodities linked to the oil and gas sector, raising questions about how much of the growth reflects higher export earnings and how much is amplified by the depreciation of the naira.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ foreign trade reports for the first and second quarters of 2026 showed that crude petroleum, refined fuels, gas products, electricity and urea accounted for about 94.75 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa during the six-month period.
The products were valued at approximately N10.15tn, compared with N4.35tn in H1 2025, when they accounted for 90.24 per cent of total exports to the continent.
Their combined value therefore increased by 133.36 per cent year-on-year, outpacing the 122.26 per cent growth recorded in overall exports to Africa.
The figures indicate that petroleum and related products were responsible for much of the increase in Nigeria’s exports to the continent, while identifiable non-oil products did not record a corresponding expansion.
An analysis of the leading product lines published by the NBS showed that products such as cement, cigarettes, tyres, vessels and food preparations were collectively valued at about N296.61bn in H1 2026, down from approximately N309.46bn in H1 2025.
That represents a 4.15 per cent decline.
Their share of Nigeria’s exports to Africa also fell sharply, from 6.42 per cent in H1 2025 to 2.77 per cent in H1 2026.
The oil and non-oil estimates were derived from the leading product lines reported by the NBS for the first two quarters of the respective years because the bureau does not publish a complete product-by-product breakdown of Nigeria’s total exports to Africa.
The latest figures come against the backdrop of the Federal Government’s efforts to expand non-oil exports and reduce the economy’s dependence on crude oil.
They also coincide with the increasing participation of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in the export market, adding refined petroleum products to Nigeria’s trade flows within Africa.
Six-year surge
Nigeria’s exports to Africa have recorded a substantial increase in naira terms since 2020, although the growth has not been consistent.
Exports stood at N1.38tn in the first half of 2020 before falling to N963bn in H1 2021 and N904.05bn in H1 2022.
The value subsequently recovered to N1.31tn in H1 2023.
Exports then surged to N4.21tn in H1 2024, representing a 221.32 per cent increase from the previous year.
The figure rose more moderately to N4.82tn in H1 2025 before climbing to N10.72tn in H1 2026.
Compared with the N1.38tn recorded in H1 2020, the latest figure represents a 675.9 per cent increase in naira value over six years.
But the increase in naira-denominated export values does not necessarily mean that Nigeria’s real export volumes or foreign-currency earnings increased by the same proportion.
The naira has undergone significant depreciation during the period under review, meaning that export receipts denominated in foreign currencies can translate into substantially higher naira values even when the underlying dollar value or physical volume grows more slowly.
Consequently, the six-year rise needs to be assessed alongside export volumes, international commodity prices and the foreign-currency value of shipments to determine the extent of the real expansion in Nigeria’s exports.
The composition of the trade also remains significant.
Despite the increase in total exports, petroleum and related products accounted for an even larger proportion of Nigeria’s exports to Africa in H1 2026, while the identifiable non-oil products examined in the NBS data declined in both value and share.
The figures therefore point to a widening gap between the headline growth in export value and the diversification of the products Nigeria sells to its African trading partners.
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