Nigeria’s crude oil production fell marginally to 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025, from 1.436 million bpd recorded in November, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report released by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday.
The data show that Nigeria has now missed its OPEC-assigned production quota for the fifth consecutive month, highlighting persistent output challenges despite reforms in the upstream oil sector.
OPEC figures indicate that the country last met its quota in July 2025, with production remaining below target from August through December.
Quarterly production data for 2025 reveal a steady downward trend.
Output averaged 1.468 million bpd in the first quarter of the year, rose slightly to 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter, before declining to 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter and further to about 1.42 million bpd in the final quarter.
The sustained decline points to structural and operational constraints that continue to limit Nigeria’s oil production capacity.
OPEC compiles production figures using both direct submissions from member countries and estimates from secondary sources such as independent energy intelligence agencies.
While Nigeria’s output showed a decline based on direct communication data, secondary sources presented a more optimistic picture.
These estimates put Nigeria’s crude production at 1.5 million bpd in December, representing a 1.35 per cent increase from the 1.48 million bpd recorded in November.
Despite failing to meet its quota, Nigeria maintained its position as Africa’s largest oil producer during the period, ahead of Libya, which produced 1.37 million bpd in December.
At the broader OPEC level, crude oil production by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation averaged 42.83 million bpd in December 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 238,000 bpd, based on secondary source data.
Crude oil remains Nigeria’s largest source of foreign exchange earnings and government revenue, making sustained underperformance against OPEC quotas a major concern.
The output shortfall limits the country’s ability to fully benefit from higher global oil prices at a time of mounting fiscal pressures and foreign exchange shortages.
It also raises questions about Nigeria’s capacity to scale up production as OPEC gradually relaxes supply restrictions.
Domestic figures, however, present a stronger outlook when condensate production is taken into account.
According to a Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission report titled “Crude Oil and Condensate Production 2025,” Nigeria’s combined crude and condensate output averaged 1.64 million bpd in the first eleven months of the year.
Condensates are excluded from OPEC quota calculations, which explains the gap between OPEC-reported crude oil output and Nigeria’s domestic production figures.
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