Nigeria’s oil production, including condensate, declined by 8.3 per cent year-on-year to 1.544 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.684 million bpd recorded in the same period of 2024, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
In its latest report released on Wednesday, the Commission did not state specific reasons for the decline, though indications point to limited investment and weak production growth. On a month-on-month basis, output also fell slightly from 1.599 million bpd in November 2025 to 1.544 million bpd in December.
The data showed that Nigeria again fell short of its 1.5 million bpd crude oil production quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Of the total output recorded in December, 122,385 bpd was condensate, which is excluded from OPEC’s production quota calculations.
The figures also indicate that the Federal Government failed to meet its 2025 budget oil production benchmark of 2.06 million bpd, which was based on an oil price of $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of about N1,500 to the dollar.
According to NUPRC, daily average production in December stood at 1,544,345 bpd, made up of 1,421,960 bpd of crude oil and 122,385 bpd of condensate. The report noted that Nigeria’s average crude oil production represented about 95 per cent of its OPEC quota.
Similarly, OPEC’s January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report showed that Nigeria’s crude oil output, excluding condensate, declined marginally by 0.9 per cent to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025 from 1.436 million bpd in November, based on direct communication data. On a year-on-year basis, crude production also dropped from 1.485 million bpd to 1.422 million bpd.
Reacting to the figures, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Wumi Iledare, attributed the persistent shortfalls to insecurity, a mature oil basin, lack of new discoveries, and policy uncertainty.
“The selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act must stop. Nigeria needs clear leadership with institutional authority to drive the sector. Policy uncertainty and governance gaps continue to discourage investors,” he said, noting that Nigeria has struggled for years to meet its OPEC quota.
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