Oil prices fell on Tuesday as the market weighed expectations of ample global supply this year against uncertainty around Venezuelan crude output after the United States capture of President Nicolas Maduro.
Brent crude futures fell $1.06, or 1.7%, to settle at $60.70 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.19, or 2%, to $57.13 a barrel.
“It is premature to evaluate the impact of Nicolas Maduro’s capture on the oil balance. What seems obvious, nonetheless, is that oil supply will be sufficient in 2026, with or without an increase in production from the OPEC member,” an analyst at PVM Oil, Tamas Varga, said.
Global oil demand likely grew by around 900,000 barrels per day last year, compared to a historical trend rate of 1.2 million bpd, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a statement on Tuesday, January 6, 2026.
Venezuela to supply up to 50m barrels of oil to U.S.— Trump
The Morgan Stanley analysts added that OPEC supply grew 1.6 million bpd and non-OPEC supply grew about 2.4 million bpd between the fourth quarters of 2024 and 2025.
“This means both sources of supply enter 2026 at a very strong level,” they said, adding that could put oil markets in a surplus of as much as 3 million bpd in the first half of 2026.
Market participants polled by Reuters in December also said they expected oil prices to be under pressure in 2026 because of rising supply and weak demand.
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