Oil prices rise as fragile US-Iran ceasefire keeps markets on edge

Oil prices rose on Thursday, April 9, 2026, as doubts over ​a fragile two-week Middle East ceasefire raised concerns that energy flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz will remain ‌restricted.

Brent crude futures were up $1.96, or 2.07%, at $96.71 a barrel at 0325 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.60, or 2.75%, to $97.01 a barrel.

Both benchmark prices fell below $100 per barrel in the previous trading session, with WTI recording its biggest decline since ​April 2020, on initial expectations for the ceasefire to result in a reopening of the strait.

However, analysts said market participants ​are hesitant to fully unwind pricing for geopolitical risk, and there is no clarity on ⁠what negotiations between the United States and Iran would mean for oil flows.

“The chances of a meaningful reopening (of the ​Strait of Hormuz) any time soon look dim,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights, ​predicting continued volatility in oil prices.

Trump vows to impose 50% tariffs on countries supplying weapons to Iran

“The futures market looks a bit broken,” she said, adding that “prices should have snapped right back to pre-ceasefire levels by now.”

The vital waterway connects supply from Gulf producers such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar to global markets, and typically ​carries about 20% of global oil and gas supply.

The viability of the ceasefire is in question with Israel continuing to attack Lebanon ​on Wednesday, causing Iran to suggest it would be “unreasonable” to proceed with talks to forge a permanent peace deal, Reuters reported.

Shippers on Wednesday ‌also said ⁠they needed more clarity on the terms of the ceasefire before resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has issued maps to guide ships around mines in the waterway and designated safe paths for passage in coordination with the country’s Revolutionary Guards.