Oil prices soar as investors doubt breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks

Oil prices climbed on Friday, May 22, 2026, but were on track for a ‌weekly loss as investors doubted the prospects of a breakthrough in United States-Iran peace talks.

Brent crude futures rose $1.66, or 1.6%, to $104.24 a barrel by 0405 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up $1.11, or 1.2%, at $97.46.

On a weekly ​basis, Brent was 4.6% lower and WTI was down 7.6%, with prices fluctuating sharply ​as expectations for a peace deal shifted.

A senior Iranian source told Reuters ⁠gaps with the United States have narrowed and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke of “some good signs” in ​talks, but the countries are still divided on Tehran’s uranium stockpile and controls on the Strait of Hormuz.

“Oil prices ​would only trend lower when oil market fundamentals materially improve, which looks destined to stretch into 2027,” said David Oxley, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics.

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Six weeks since a fragile ceasefire took effect, efforts to ​end the war have shown little progress, while elevated oil prices have fuelled concern ​over inflation and the outlook for global economy.

About 20% ​of global energy ⁠supplies transited the Strait before the war, which has removed 14 million barrels per day of oil – or 14% of global supply – from the ​market, including exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, ​and Kuwait.

The head of the UAE’s state oil firm ADNOC said full ⁠oil flows through the Strait will not return before the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the conflict ended now.

Seven leading ⁠OPEC+ ​oil-producing countries will likely agree to a modest hike to ​July output when they meet on June 7, four sources said, though delivery for several remains disrupted by the Iran ​war.