20% drop in EU asylum claims as fears mount over Iran crisis

Asylum applications to the European Union fell by nearly 20 percent in 2025, according to a new report released Tuesday by the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA).

However, the agency warned that escalating instability in Iran could trigger refugee movements of “unprecedented magnitude.”

The report, prepared before the outbreak of the recent US-Israel war involving Iran, cautioned that turmoil in the Islamic Republic could reverse the current downward trend in protection requests.

“With a population of approximately 90 million, even partial destabilisation could generate refugee movements of an unprecedented magnitude,” the EUAA stated.

Diplomatic sources said the potential fallout was discussed during an extraordinary meeting of EU foreign ministers on Sunday.

The matter is also expected to feature prominently when the bloc’s 27 interior ministers convene in Brussels on Thursday.

The European Commission confirmed on Monday that it is strengthening preparedness measures by closely monitoring developments and enhancing coordination with relevant United Nations agencies and partner countries.

When asked for an updated assessment as hostilities spread across the Middle East, the EUAA declined to speculate.

“The situation remains very fluid, and it would be irresponsible to make any hypothetical or predictive statement,” the agency said.

In its report, the agency noted that displacement of just 10 percent of Iran’s population would rival the largest refugee flows seen in recent decades, though it emphasized that such a scenario remains “highly speculative.”

Describing Iran as a “potential flashpoint” in an already volatile global environment, the EUAA pointed to mass protests against the country’s clerical leadership and previous US-Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities.

It cautioned that the recent decline in asylum applications should therefore be interpreted carefully.

Iran is currently one of the world’s largest refugee-hosting countries, sheltering about 2.5 million refugees—mainly Afghan nationals—according to the UN refugee agency.

Despite growing concerns, displacement of Iranian nationals has so far remained limited. In 2025, Iranians filed approximately 8,000 asylum applications across the EU, as well as in Switzerland and Norway—ranking as the 31st largest applicant group.

Overall, EU+ countries recorded around 822,000 asylum applications in 2025, representing a 19 percent decrease compared to the previous year. This followed an 11 percent decline in 2024.

The drop in 2025 was largely driven by fewer applications from Syrians, Bangladeshis, and Turks. Afghans submitted the highest number of applications at 117,000—marking a 33 percent increase from the previous year—followed by Venezuelans with 91,000 applications.