MTN Nigeria reported a profit after tax of N355.5bn for the first quarter of 2026, representing a 165.9 per cent increase compared to the same period last year, but warned that rising diesel prices could pressure earnings in the months ahead.
In its unaudited financial results released on Wednesday, the telecom operator projected a potential decline of between 1.8 and 2.0 percentage points in its full-year Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) margin if diesel prices average N2,000 per litre in the second half of the year.
With about 89.5 million subscribers, MTN Nigeria operates over 20,000 base stations nationwide, the majority of which rely on diesel-powered generators due to persistent instability in the national power grid.
Chief Executive Officer Karl Toriola said the company remains cautious about developments in the operating environment, particularly fluctuations in energy costs and regulatory conditions.
The outlook reflects growing uncertainty in Nigeria’s fuel market, driven by global crude oil disruptions and local supply challenges. In March, geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran disrupted activity around the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and increasing global fuel import costs.
These pressures have filtered into Nigeria’s deregulated downstream sector, resulting in higher fuel prices nationwide. The Dangote Refinery recently adjusted its diesel price to about N1,750 per litre, while prices at some independent stations have risen to roughly N1,250 per litre in parts of the country.
MTN Nigeria noted that if diesel prices in Lagos average N2,000 per litre in the second half of the year, the impact on profitability could be significant, with EBITDA margins expected to weaken accordingly.
According to the State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report 2025 by the Africa Finance Corporation, telecom operators in Nigeria consume more than 40 million litres of diesel monthly to power network infrastructure. This equates to over 480 million litres annually, with industry spending estimated at more than $350m.
Meanwhile, MTN Nigeria significantly increased its capital expenditure during the quarter, with spending (excluding right-of-use assets) rising by 92.8 per cent year-on-year to N390.3bn from N202.4bn in Q1 2025.
The company said much of the investment was directed toward expanding network capacity and enhancing broadband services, including fibre-to-the-home deployment and fixed wireless access infrastructure.
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