El Nino fuels global heat as 2026 nears record — EU

Global temperatures in 2026 are virtually certain to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, with the year on track to become the second-hottest on record, the European Union’s climate monitor has warned.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service said Friday that an exceptionally strong El Nino phenomenon was adding further heat to the planet already warming due to human activities.

It said 2026 still had a 20 per cent chance of matching or surpassing 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.

Copernicus also projected that the four-year average temperature from 2023 to 2026 would exceed the 1.5C threshold set under the Paris Agreement to limit the worst effects of climate change.

The warning followed the record-breaking October, which saw average global surface air temperatures reach 1.75C above pre-industrial levels, defined as the period between 1850 and 1900.

October was the third consecutive month in which global temperatures exceeded the 1.5C mark.

“October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates Copernicus.

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“An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities,” she added.

The latest report comes as countries prepare for the United Nations’ two-week COP31 climate summit in Turkey, following a year marked by deadly floods in Nepal, severe heatwaves in Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.