Nigeria deferred about 42.55 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in 2025, with the affected volumes carrying an estimated market value of $2.97bn, as pipeline outages and operational disruptions continued to constrain production.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission disclosed this in its 2025 annual report, which put the average daily production deferment at 116,563 barrels.
The commission attributed the disruptions largely to outages on major pipelines, including the Trans Niger Pipeline, Nembe Creek Trunk Line and Trans Forcados Pipeline, as well as equipment breakdowns, maintenance activities and delays in vessel loading at export terminals.
Deferred production refers to crude oil that operators are unable to produce or evacuate as scheduled because of operational or infrastructure problems. Although some of the affected volumes may be recovered later, prolonged disruptions can reduce immediate export earnings and government revenue.
An analysis of the commission’s monthly figures showed that October recorded the highest average daily deferment at 172,761 barrels, followed by March with 169,856 barrels and December with 169,786 barrels.
July recorded the lowest daily deferment at 25,780 barrels.
The October figure was about 570 per cent higher than July’s, highlighting the scale of production disruptions during the year.
The estimated $2.97bn value was calculated using the monthly average prices of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude grade against the corresponding deferred volumes.
United Capital’s 2025 Economic Review and 2026 Outlook put the average Bonny Light price at $70.88 per barrel in 2025, compared with $82.40 in 2024, representing a 14 per cent decline.
However, the estimated value represents the indicative gross market worth of the deferred barrels, not confirmed revenue lost by the Federal Government or oil companies, as some of the production could be recovered later.
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The NUPRC said pipeline outages were the most prevalent cause of deferment during the year.
It stated, “The most prevalent reason for deferment during the year was outage of key pipelines (TNP, NCTL & TFP), technical and operational challenges such as planned maintenance, vessel/tanker loading delay at terminal leading to shut-in of wells also contributed greatly to deferment.”
Monthly figures showed that deferment averaged 76,002 barrels per day in January, with the affected volume valued at about $190.37m using an average Bonny Light price of $80.80 per barrel.
The figure rose to 134,793 barrels per day in February, a 77.4 per cent increase from January, with an estimated value of $290.99m.
In March, daily deferment climbed further to 169,856 barrels, valued at approximately $391.76m, the highest monthly amount recorded during the year.
Although the figure declined to 113,132 barrels per day in April and 102,480 barrels in May, disruptions persisted.
Daily deferment dropped to 55,445 barrels in June and 25,780 barrels in July, before rising to 95,639 barrels in August and 115,081 barrels in September.
In October, the average daily deferment of 172,761 barrels translated to about 5.36 million barrels for the month, valued at an estimated $354.54m.
The industry also recorded elevated deferment levels in November and December, at 169,340 and 169,786 barrels per day, respectively.
December’s figure was 123.4 per cent higher than January’s, indicating that production constraints remained significant towards the end of the year.
The report highlights the infrastructure and operational challenges confronting Nigeria’s efforts to raise crude oil production and maximise earnings from its petroleum resources.
While oil theft and pipeline vandalism have historically affected output, the commission’s findings show that pipeline outages, maintenance, equipment failures and terminal limitations also contributed significantly to the volume of crude that could not be produced or evacuated as scheduled.
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