Oil prices set for weekly decline as war premium vanishes

Oil prices headed for their steepest weekly decline since March 2023 on Friday, June 27, 2025, as the absence of significant supply disruption from the Iran-Israel conflict saw any risk premium evaporate.

Brent crude futures rose 35 cents, or 0.52%, to $68.08 a barrel by 0429 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 40 cents, or 0.61%, to $65.64.

That put both contracts on course for a weekly fall of about 12%.

The benchmarks are now back at the levels they were at before Isreal began the conflict by firing missiles at Iranian military and nuclear targets on June 13.

This week began with prices hitting a five-month high after the United States attacked Iranian nuclear sites at the weekend, before slumping to their lowest in over a week on Tuesday when U.S. President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire.

Oil price rises to $68.21/barrel

At present, traders and analysts said they could see no material impact from the crisis on oil flow.

“Absent the threat of significant supply disruption, we still view oil as fundamentally oversupplied, with our 2025 balances indicating a roughly 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) surplus,” Macquarie analysts wrote in a research note on Thursday.

The analysts forecast WTI to average around $67 a barrel this year and $60 next year, raising each forecast by $2 after factoring in a geopolitical risk premium, Reuters reported.

Small gains in prices later in the week came as U.S. government data showed crude oil and fuel inventories a week earlier, with refining activity and demand rising.

“The market is starting to digest the fact that crude oil inventories are very tight all of a sudden,” a senior analyst with the Price Futures Group, Phil Flynn, said.

The Star