The World Bank says global commodity prices could rise by 23 per cent in 2026, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, declining oil inventories, and disruptions to food supplies.
The projection is contained in the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook released on Wednesday, October 28, 2026
The World Bank warned that rising energy and food prices could worsen inflation, food insecurity and economic growth, particularly in vulnerable countries.
According to the report, energy prices are expected to increase by 32 per cent in 2026, reversing three consecutive years of decline, before moderating in 2027.
It projected that Brent crude oil would average $91 dper barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, before declining to $79 per barrel in 2027.
Food commodity prices are also expected to rise by about 10 per cent in 2026 and a further seven per cent in 2027, representing a cumulative increase of 18 per cent.
The World Bank attributed the projected increase to disruptions to grain shipments caused by the Middle East conflict, the threat of El Niño to agricultural harvests, and higher fuel and fertiliser costs.
The World Bank, however, projected that overall commodity prices would decline by seven per cent in 2027, assuming no major escalation of conflicts affecting global commodity supplies.
The World Bank warned that the outlook could deteriorate further if the Middle East conflict escalated and damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure persisted.
It added that a combination of higher-than-expected energy prices, attacks on grain shipments in the Black Sea and a particularly strong El Niño could trigger a food crisis, pushing more people into extreme poverty.
“Under an adverse scenario in which the risks materialise simultaneously, Brent crude could average 105 dollars per barrel in 2027, while food commodity prices could rise 12 per cent above the baseline forecast, exceeding their 2022 levels,” the bank stated.
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The World Bank also projected that global oil supply would fall by 5.2 per cent in 2026, the largest decline in more than four decades outside the 2020 global recession.
It said oil consumption was expected to decline by 2.5 per cent, marking the third-largest annual contraction on record after 2020 and 1980.
According to the report, high prices amid supply shortages are curbing demand, while electrification is also reducing oil consumption, particularly in China.
The bank added: “In spite of the projected decline in consumption, oil production is expected to remain below demand, forcing further withdrawals from inventories and leaving global markets more vulnerable to additional supply disruptions.
“Fertiliser prices are forecast to increase by 14 per cent in 2026 following an early-year surge in urea prices, which has since eased. Prices are expected to return to their 2025 levels in 2027.”
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