Nigeria’s inflation rate is expected to climb further in the coming months following a sharp increase recorded in March 2026, according to economic analysts.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that headline inflation rose to 15.4 per cent year-on-year in March, marking its first increase in a year. On a month-on-month basis, inflation jumped significantly to 4.2 per cent from 2.0 per cent in February—the fastest pace since tracking began in 2009.
Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa attributed the spike to a mix of global and domestic factors, particularly rising energy costs and structural challenges within the economy.
They noted that a surge in global crude oil prices—triggered by tensions in the Middle East—pushed prices from below $80 per barrel to over $100 in late February, leading to higher petrol and diesel costs in Nigeria. This, in turn, increased transportation and production expenses, driving up overall price levels.
A breakdown of the data showed that inflationary pressures were widespread. Food inflation rose to 14.3 per cent year-on-year from 12.1 per cent in February, while core inflation climbed to 16.2 per cent, its first increase since May 2025. On a monthly basis, however, food inflation eased slightly to 4.2 per cent, even as core inflation surged to 4.0 per cent, reflecting rising energy and logistics costs.
Despite a slight drop in global oil prices below $100 per barrel in April, analysts remain cautious. Afrinvest projects inflation could rise further to 16.4 per cent year-on-year in April, with food inflation expected at 16.0 per cent and core inflation at 17.8 per cent.
Other firms, including Coronation Asset Management and Cordros Capital, also warned of sustained inflationary pressures driven by exchange rate volatility, high logistics costs, and supply constraints.
To ease the burden on households, analysts recommended targeted interventions such as affordable mass transit, expanded access to low-cost healthcare, and the release of grains from strategic reserves to stabilise food prices.
They also highlighted potential risks from climate-related disruptions, noting projections by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency that flooding could impact over 14,000 communities across 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory between July and September.
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