Dangote targets East Africa for new 650,000bpd refinery expansion

Africa’s richest industrialist, Aliko Dangote, has unveiled plans to build a 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery in East Africa, marking a major push to expand his refining footprint beyond Nigeria and reduce the continent’s dependence on imported fuel.

Speaking at the Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi, organised by the Africa Finance Corporation, Dangote said his group is prepared to replicate the scale and model of its Lagos refinery, provided East African governments offer the necessary support.

He noted that discussions are still in the early stages but expressed strong confidence in the project’s viability. According to him, his company’s experience in delivering the Lagos-based refinery proves that such an ambitious project can be successfully executed again.

The proposed refinery aligns with ongoing efforts by regional governments—including Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania—to establish a joint refining hub in the Tanzanian port city of Tanga. The facility is expected to process crude sourced from across East and Central Africa, including the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan.

Dangote also disclosed that expansion work has already begun on his Nigerian refinery, with plans to scale capacity up to 1.4 million barrels per day. If completed, the facility would rank among the largest in the world and significantly boost Africa’s refining capacity.

He stressed the need for Africa to prioritise industrial self-sufficiency, warning that reliance on imports exposes economies to global price volatility. Citing recent spikes in petrochemical prices, he said local production remains critical to protecting key sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing.

Dangote further revealed plans to open up investment in the refinery business to Africans, offering dollar-denominated returns. He said this would allow the continent to take ownership of critical infrastructure while deepening financial markets.

On project timelines, he indicated that the East African refinery could be delivered within four to five years once agreements are finalised with participating governments.

Meanwhile, Kenya’s President, William Ruto, confirmed that talks are underway with Dangote and regional partners to establish the Tanga refinery. He added that the project would be supported by a pipeline linking Mombasa to Tanga, ensuring a steady supply of crude.

Industry data shows that about 75 per cent of refined petroleum products consumed in East and Southern Africa are imported, largely from the Middle East, leaving the region vulnerable to supply disruptions and price shocks.

The renewed push for local refining has gained urgency amid recent global supply uncertainties, including tensions involving Iran, which have highlighted Africa’s exposure to external risks.

The development also comes as Uganda advances plans for its own refinery, following a 2024 agreement with Alpha MBM Investments to build a 60,000bpd facility.

Dangote’s latest move builds on the rollout of his 650,000bpd Lagos refinery, which began operations in 2024 and is expected to meet Nigeria’s domestic fuel demand while exporting surplus products.

Beyond refining, he announced plans to establish about 20 fertiliser blending plants across Africa by 2028, further expanding his industrial footprint on the continent.

Analysts say the proposed East African refinery could reshape regional fuel supply, cut import dependence, and strengthen energy security across Africa.