FG projects ₦34.3trn revenue as FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF

The Federal Executive Council (FEC) on Wednesday approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), setting out Nigeria’s fiscal assumptions, revenue expectations, and expenditure priorities for the next three years.

Briefing State House Correspondents after the meeting chaired by President Bola Tinubu, the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu, said the Federal Government projects total revenue of ₦34.33 trillion for 2026.

According to him, the figure— which includes ₦4.98 trillion expected from government-owned enterprises— is ₦6.55 trillion lower than the revenue estimate in the 2025 budget.

He added that the expected allocation to the Federal Government, at ₦9.4 trillion, represents a 16% decline compared to 2025.

Bagudu noted that statutory transfers are projected at about ₦3 trillion.

He also revealed that FEC adopted an oil production target of 2.6 million barrels per day for 2026, though a more conservative 1.8 million barrels per day will be used for budgeting purposes.

The Council also approved an oil benchmark price of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of ₦1,512/$, which Bagudu said reflects macroeconomic realities as well as considerations for the fiscal environment ahead of the 2027 general elections.

All assumptions, he explained, were based on analyses by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies, with additional input from cabinet members before the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC) was approved.

Also speaking, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, said the Council approved a $100 million African Development Bank loan for the Nigeria Youth Investment Fund, targeting entrepreneurs between the ages of 18 and 35.

Edun added that FEC endorsed another facility from the Islamic Development Bank for an integrated agricultural development project in Yobe State.

Both loans, he noted, are concessional, long-term, and offered by trusted multilateral partners.

He said President Tinubu acknowledged recent improvements in GDP growth but insisted that current levels were still below target.

The president therefore directed ministries, departments, and agencies to prioritise capital projects that stimulate economic expansion and create jobs.