Oil thieves steal 3.3m barrels as NUPRC revenue drops N2.1trn

Nigeria lost 3.33 million barrels of crude oil to theft in 2025, with 2.19 million barrels stolen in the final quarter alone, as the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission’s revenue collections fell by N2.14trn amid mounting oil sector losses.

The losses, which accounted for nearly 66 per cent of the total reported crude theft for the year in the last three months, came despite the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited spending N8.67trn on energy security in 2025.

The NUPRC’s 2025 annual report, released on Thursday, showed that crude oil and gas revenue collections declined from N12.56tn in 2024 to N10.42trn in 2025, representing a 17.03 per cent drop.

The report highlighted a sharp escalation in crude theft in the fourth quarter, when 2.19 million barrels were recorded, almost five times the 440,434 barrels reported in the third quarter.

According to the commission, 896,471 barrels were recorded as stolen in the first quarter, while the second quarter recorded a negative figure of 200,400 barrels, attributed to excess volumes identified during reconciliation.

The third quarter recorded 440,434 barrels, while the fourth quarter accounted for the highest volume of 2.19 million barrels.

The quarterly figures brought the reported crude theft volume for the year to approximately 3.33 million barrels.

The report stated, “Nigeria recorded 896,471 barrels of crude oil theft in the first quarter.

“The second quarter recorded a negative 200,400 barrels, which the commission described as an excess volume in its reconciliation. Reported theft stood at 440,434 barrels in the third quarter. The fourth quarter recorded 2.19 million barrels, the highest quarterly volume of the year.”

The theft persisted despite the significant cost of securing Nigeria’s petroleum assets, with NNPC reporting energy security expenditure of N8.67trn in 2025, up from approximately N3.1trn in 2024.

The expenditure covers interventions aimed at protecting oil and gas infrastructure and supporting national energy security, although the entire amount cannot be attributed solely to crude oil theft.

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The continued losses, alongside the rising security expenditure, raise concerns over the effectiveness of efforts to safeguard oil production facilities and crude evacuation infrastructure.

The stolen crude also represents potential revenue, export earnings and feedstock that could have been available to domestic refineries.

Despite the losses, Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate in 2025.

Quarterly production stood at 132.70 million barrels in the first quarter, 137.69 million barrels in the second, 137.45 million barrels in the third and 133.23 million barrels in the fourth quarter.

The country also produced 48.52 million barrels of unblended condensate during the year.

On revenue performance, oil and gas royalties, including Project Gazelle and NNPC receivables, remained the commission’s largest revenue source, generating N8.97trn in 2025, compared with N11.08trn in 2024.

The decline of N2.11trn represented a 19.03 per cent reduction.

The commission generated N10.42trn against a projected revenue target of N16.54trn, representing 63 per cent performance.

The report stated, “The total approved budget for 2025 was N645,462,335,500.80, with total income of N342,814,462,174.97 and total expenditure was N304,533,385,103.

“Total revenue generated was N10,424,478,448,682.40, which is 63 per cent of projected revenue of N16,538,206,608,738.00.”

Despite the overall decline in revenue, receipts from gas flare penalties increased by 56.27 per cent, from N391.26bn in 2024 to N611.42bn in 2025.

Signature bonuses rose by 44.2 per cent, from N369.58bn to N532.94bn, while concession rentals increased by 61.1 per cent, from N23.71bn to N38.19bn.

Miscellaneous revenue also increased from N35.20bn to N46.44bn.

However, royalty by price declined from N313.72bn to N213.41bn, while lease renewal receipts dropped sharply from N230.73bn in 2024 to N8.23bn in 2025.

The commission’s total income from cost of revenue collection and internally generated revenue increased by 21.85 per cent to N342.81bn in 2025, compared with N281.34bn in 2024.

Cost of revenue collection accounted for N335.45bn, while internally generated revenue contributed N7.36bn.

The report also documented 357 oil spill incidents during the year, with sabotage accounting for 49.5 per cent of the reported cases.

The findings underscore the continued challenges confronting Nigeria’s oil sector, as crude theft, declining revenue and oil spills persist despite substantial spending on energy security.