OPEC+ raises oil output quotas, sidesteps UAE exit

Seven key members of the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, have agreed to increase their collective oil production quota by 188,000 barrels per day for June, in a move aimed at reinforcing market stability amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The decision followed a virtual meeting involving Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait and Oman. In a statement, the group said the adjustment reflects a “collective commitment to support oil market stability.”

Notably, the communiqué made no reference to the recent withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates from the alliance, despite the country’s exit just days earlier.

Energy analysts say the silence signals underlying tensions within the group. Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy noted that the move appears designed to project continuity.

“By maintaining the same production trajectory — excluding the UAE — the group is effectively acting as if nothing has changed,” he said, adding that the strategy is aimed at downplaying internal divisions.

However, analysts suggest the quota increase may have limited real-world impact. Actual production remains significantly below targets due to disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil transit route.

The blockade, imposed by Iran in response to escalating hostilities, has constrained exports from several Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait. Although the UAE is also affected, its output will no longer count towards OPEC+ quotas.

According to Rystad Energy analyst Priya Walia, OPEC+ output stood at about 27.68 million barrels per day in March, far below the group’s quota of 36.73 million barrels per day — a gap largely attributed to war-related disruptions rather than voluntary cuts.

Despite rising oil prices, Russia — the group’s second-largest producer — has also struggled to meet its output targets, partly due to infrastructure challenges linked to its ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Industry observers say the UAE’s departure marks a significant shift for the alliance. Amena Bakr of Kpler described the exit as a “major development,” noting that previous departures by Qatar in 2019 and Angola in 2023 had less impact.

The UAE has been expanding its oil capacity aggressively, with its state-owned firm Abu Dhabi National Oil Company aiming to raise production to five million barrels per day by 2027, well above its previous quota of about 3.5 million barrels.

ADNOC also announced plans to invest $55 billion in new projects over the next two years, underscoring its push for growth outside the OPEC+ framework.

Analysts warn that OPEC+ could face further strain if other members, including Iraq and Kazakhstan — both previously accused of exceeding quotas — consider following the UAE’s path.