Refineries spend N5.7trn on imported oil despite naira-for-crude policy

Nigeria’s oil sector paradox deepened in 2025 as local refineries spent about N5.734 trillion importing crude oil, despite the country’s status as Africa’s largest producer and the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy aimed at boosting domestic supply.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that crude imports surged from zero in 2024 to over N5.7tn in 2025, reflecting a sharp disconnect between upstream production and local refining needs.

Within the same period, Nigeria produced about 530.41 million barrels of crude oil and generated roughly N55.5tn in revenue, yet domestic refineries struggled with persistent feedstock shortages.

An analysis of the NBS Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report revealed that crude imports became a major component of Nigeria’s import bill in 2025.

Imports stood at N1.19tn in the first quarter, rising to N1.64tn in the second quarter and peaking at N2.403tn in the third quarter. However, the figure dropped significantly by 79.2 per cent to N499.75bn in the fourth quarter, indicating a late-year easing in demand or improved supply.

Monthly data showed sharp fluctuations, with imports hitting a yearly high of N1.28tn in July before declining steadily toward the end of the year, eventually dropping to zero in December.

Findings indicate that local refineries—including modular plants and large-scale facilities like the Dangote Petroleum Refinery—increasingly relied on international markets due to inadequate domestic crude supply.

The Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) confirmed that many refiners received little or no crude allocation under the Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation framework or the naira-for-crude arrangement.

CORAN’s Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, said some modular refineries operated far below capacity, while others shut down entirely due to lack of feedstock.

He cited instances where facilities produced as little as 10 per cent of capacity, adding that inconsistent crude supply remained the biggest constraint.

The Dangote refinery also acknowledged supply challenges, stating it receives about five cargoes of crude monthly from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited under the naira-for-crude deal—far below the 13 cargoes required for full operations.

The shortfall is sourced from international markets, often at prevailing global prices, forcing the company to rely on foreign exchange to meet demand.

Experts say the naira-for-crude policy, introduced in October 2024 to ease forex pressure and ensure steady supply to local refineries, has not achieved its core objectives.

Energy analyst Jeremiah Olatide noted that many refineries still depend heavily on imported crude, with the Dangote refinery sourcing up to 70 per cent of its feedstock externally.

He added that the policy has not translated into lower fuel prices, as crude supplied locally is still priced against international benchmarks.

Similarly, energy professor Dayo Ayoade attributed the challenge to structural issues, including prior crude forward-sales, underinvestment in upstream operations, and competing export obligations.

According to him, Nigeria currently lacks sufficient available crude to meet both export commitments and domestic refining demand.

Industry stakeholders also pointed to factors such as pricing disputes, currency risks, and reluctance by international oil companies to supply locally due to better returns in export markets.

Additionally, operational realities—such as the need for refineries to process blended crude grades—mean that some level of importation is unavoidable.

Analysts warn that crude importation by Nigerian refineries is likely to persist into 2026, driven by ongoing issues such as pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and limited production growth.

While increased refining capacity has improved product availability, the core challenge has shifted from refining capability to access to crude oil.

The development underscores a critical gap in Nigeria’s oil value chain, where aligning crude production with domestic refining demand remains key to achieving energy security.