Middle East conflict may cut Africa’s growth by 0.2% ― Report

The ongoing crisis in the Middle East could reduce economic growth across African countries by up to 0.2 per cent, a new joint policy report has revealed.

The joint policy document was presented on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, in Washington, D.C., by the African Development Bank Group (AfDB), the African Union Commission, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

The report, entitled “Impacts of the Conflict in the Middle East on African Economies,” warned that African economies, which were slowly recovering from the severe consequences of COVID-19, the Russia–Ukraine war, and rising trade tariffs, could be among the most affected by the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.

The Chief Economist and Vice President for Economic Governance and Knowledge Management at AfDB, Kevin Urama, presented the report on the sidelines of the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

He emphasised that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had significant consequences for transport and trade.

“The report reminds us that the continent demonstrates remarkable resilience,” said Francisca Tatchouop Belobe, African Union Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry, and Mining.

The report said the main effects of Middle Eastern conflicts on African economies include surging prices of hydrocarbons, food products, and fertilizers.

“They also cause disruptions to global trade, logistics, and supply chains, and made capital and foreign exchange markets volatile,” it said.

To address the crisis, AfDB Chief Economist Urama urged African governments not to panic or take hasty decisions that could harm their fiscal balances.

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The report recommended, in particular, strategic inflation management to ensure short-term price stability expectations.

It warned oil-exporting countries to adopt strict fiscal discipline by managing windfall revenues prudently, while strengthening debt-monitoring, and using energy reserves strategically.

Where fiscal space allows, the report advised that temporary and targeted social protection measures be deployed to shield the most vulnerable populations from the crisis.

However, the report urged governments to avoid broad-based subsidies that could worsen long-term fiscal deficits, and to diversify sources of energy, inputs, and food supplies.

It also recommended that African governments strengthen regional and intra-African trade in oil and fertilizer markets to enhance resilience, and ensure smooth inter-institutional coordination to harmonize strategic monetary and fiscal policies.

The report also called on development partners, multilateral banks, and development finance institutions to provide emergency support to African countries through crisis response measures and technical assistance.

It also recommended that the operationalisation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is operalionalised speedily, while strengthening large-scale domestic capital mobilisation.

The report also advised Africa to diversify its energy mix by accelerating investments in renewable energy and the gas sector.

It urged stakeholders in Africa’s financial ecosystem to speed up the implementation of the New African Financial Architecture for Development (NAFAD).