Oil prices fall as markets weigh supply, US-Iran peace deal

Oil prices extended ​losses on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, as markets weighed prospects for resumption of supply through the key Strait of Hormuz against and a lack of details from a preliminary deal to end the Iran war.

By 0436 GMT, Brent crude futures fell 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $82.92 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate inched down 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $80.66 a barrel.

On Monday, oil prices fell nearly 5% ​to their lowest close since March 4, after United States President Donald Trump said a memorandum of understanding was signed ​to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, though full details have not been made public.

The hostilities led to ⁠the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that typically carried one-fifth of the world’s oil supply before the conflict.

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Some analysts expect ​a resumption of supply soon via the Strait, with other factors weighing down physical market prices.

Morgan Stanley analysts said in a client note: “From here, it likely takes several weeks ​for tanker flow to be restored.

“We see 50% of production back by September, and 80% by December, slightly faster than before.”

A broad range of indicators had signalled weakness in physical oil markets in recent weeks, they added.

“High U.S. exports and low China imports ​are the key drivers (and) in the short term (i.e. next weeks) they do not seem to come to an end just yet,” Stanley added.