Oil prices rose on Monday, December 15, 2025, as supply disruptions linked to escalating United States-Venezuela tensions outweighed oversupply worries and the impact of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
Brent crude futures were up 33 cents, or 0.54%, at $61.45 a barrel, as of 0429 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.75 a barrel, up 31 cents, or 0.54%.
Both contracts slid more than 4% in the prior week, weighed down by expectations of a surplus in 2026.
A senior economist at NLI Research Institute, Tsuyoshi Ueno, said: “Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have swung between optimism and caution, while tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. are escalating, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions.
“Still, with markets lacking clear direction, oversupply concerns remain strong and unless geopolitical risks escalate sharply, WTI could fall below $55 early next year.”
Venezuela’s oil exports have fallen sharply since the United States seized a tanker earlier last week and imposed fresh sanctions on shipping companies and vessels doing business with the Latin American oil producer, according to shipping data, documents and maritime sources.
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The market is closely monitoring developments and their impact on oil supply, with Reuters reporting that the U.S. plans to intercept more ships carrying Venezuelan oil following this week’s tanker seizure, intensifying pressure on President Nicolas Maduro.
JPMorgan Commodities Research said in a note on Saturday that oil surpluses in 2025 are expected to widen further into 2026 and 2027, as global oil supply is projected to outpace demand, expanding at three times the rate of demand growth through 2026.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered to drop his country’s aspiration to join the NATO military alliance as he held five hours of talks with U.S. envoys in Berlin on Sunday.
Negotiations are set to continue on Monday.
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